Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 20/10/25

Monday 20 October

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
China GDP Year on Year China GDP Year on Year Chart 5.2% 4.8% 4.8%
Retail Sales Retail Sales Chart 3.4% 3.0% 3.0%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.2%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.5%
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart -2.2% -1.5% -1.7%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -0.5% 0.0% -0.1%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
Industrial PPI Year on Year Industrial PPI Year on Year Chart 4.0% 5.5%
Industrial PPI Month on Month Industrial PPI Month on Month Chart 0.5% 0.8%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US

Tuesday 21 October

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.5%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.2%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -0.1%
CPI BoC Core Year on Year CPI BoC Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% +2.8%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
CPI Year on Year CPI Year on Year Chart 1.9% 2.3% +2.4%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
CPI Boc Core Month on Month CPI Boc Core Month on Month Chart 0.0% +0.2%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
CPI Month on Month CPI Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.0% +0.1%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US

Wednesday 22 October

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -242.8Bln JP 22.2Bln JP -234.6Bln JP
Exports Year on Year Exports Year on Year Chart -0.1% 4.6% 4.2%
Imports Year on Year Imports Year on Year Chart -5.2% 0.6% 3.3%
CPI Year on Year CPI Year on Year Chart 3.8% 4.0% 3.8%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -0.1%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.2%
PPI Core Month on Month (nsa) PPI Core Month on Month (nsa) Chart 0.2% +0.1%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.5%
PPI Core Year on Year (nsa) PPI Core Year on Year (nsa) Chart 3.5% +3.6%
CPI Month on Month CPI Month on Month Chart 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
RPI Month on Month RPI Month on Month Chart 0.4% -0.2% -0.4%
RPI Year on Year RPI Year on Year Chart 4.6% 4.7% 4.5%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   3.524Mln 1.205Mln -0.961Mln
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US

Thursday 23 October

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.2%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.5%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart -0.1%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart -0.8% 1.0% +1.0%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
Existing Home Sales Existing Home Sales Chart 4.00Mln 4.06Mln 4.06Mln
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US

Friday 24 October

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
GFK Consumer Confidence GFK Consumer Confidence Chart -19 -20 -17
CPI Core Nationwide Year on Year CPI Core Nationwide Year on Year Chart 2.7% 2.9% 2.9%
CPI Overall Nationwide CPI Overall Nationwide Chart 2.7% 2.9%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart 0.5% -0.2% 0.5%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 0.7% 0.4% 1.5%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 2.2%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.5%
Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence Chart 87 87 90
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.6% 0.4%
PPI Core Year on Year PPI Core Year on Year Chart 2.6% 2.7%
CPI Month on Month (sa) CPI Month on Month (sa) Chart 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
CPI Year on Year (nsa) CPI Year on Year (nsa) Chart 2.9% 3.1% 3.0%
PPI Final Demand Month on Month PPI Final Demand Month on Month Chart -0.1% 0.3%
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -78.3Bln US -61.0Bln US
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.7% 0.3%
PPI excl Food and Energy MM PPI excl Food and Energy MM Chart -0.1% 0.2%
Industrial Production Month on Month Industrial Production Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.0%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
Univ Michigan Conditions Univ Michigan Conditions Chart 61.0 58.6
Univ Michigan Sentiment Univ Michigan Sentiment Chart 55.0 55.0 53.6
Factory Orders Factory Orders Chart -1.3% 1.4%
Univ Michigan Expectation Univ Michigan Expectation Chart 51.2 50.3
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln

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