Sugar tax could cut obesity in children by ten per cent – but levels could increase in wider population, says study
It is still unclear if drinks manufacturers will reduce sugar levels or simply choose to pay the tax
THE sugar tax could cut obesity in younger children by as much as ten per cent, a study found — but by just one per cent in the wider population.
In the worst case scenario, the tax could even make obesity levels worse, the Oxford University researchers warn.
But they admit the exact impact remains uncertain because it is unclear if drinks manufacturers will reduce sugar levels or simply choose to pay the tax.
The sugar tax will launch with an 18p per litre duty on drinks with content above 5g per 100ml and 24p for those with more than 8g per 100ml.
Among the drinks likely to be affected by the highest levy are Pepsi, Coca Cola, Red Bull, 7 Up, Lucozade and Irn Bru.
Professor Susan Jebb, who worked on the study, urged companies to cut the sugar content in their products to avoid the levy – and not hike prices.
She said: “If you put the prices up, on average people buy less, but some groups are more affected by that than others.
“If you reformulate to reduce the sugar content, it has a health by stealth effect. Everybody benefits without having to change customer behaviour at all.”
The study, published in The Lancet Public Health, found the impact of the sugar tax is likely to be greatest in children as they tend to drink more soft drinks.
It says the levy could result in a seven per cent reduction in the number of children between four and 18-years-old who are obese.
And in young boys aged between four and ten-years-old it could be as high as ten per cent.
The study found the best results will come from drinks manufacturers reducing the sugar levels in their drinks.
Slashing the sugar levels of the sweetest drinks by 30 per cent would cut the number of obese adults and children by 144,000.
RELATED STORIES
But this accounts for just 0.9 per cent of the 15.5 million people in the UK who are classified as obese.
The move would also result in 19,000 fewer people with diabetes and 269,000 fewer decayed and lost teeth, researchers predict.
But many manufacturers have already begun reducing the sugar in their drinks, such as Sprite, so the real impact may be smaller.
The study warns the effect will be smaller still if the cost of the tax is passed onto consumers in a price increase in soft drinks in the shops.
This would mean just 81,000 fewer people with obesity and 10,000 fewer with diabetes.
The researchers estimate the sugary drinks levy will result in an average reduction of 10 calories per person per day, which is equivalent to losing 1lb in weight a year.
And if companies start producing new brands of drinks with lower levels of sugar that lure consumers away from healthier options, obesity levels could increase by 0.6 per cent.
Dr Peter Scarborough, who also worked on the study, said: “In reality, there will probably be a combination of these different scenarios so we may have underestimated the total health impact.”
Industry experts have predicted the tax could add as much as 48p to a two-litre bottle of cola.
Opponents of the sugar tax argue it is unfair to lay the blame of the nation’s obesity crisis on the soft drinks industry and claim it is effectively a tax on the poor.
Harry Fairhead, from the TaxPayers’ Alliance, said: “Where similar taxes have been tried they have made almost no dent in calorie consumption and had very perverse consequences.
“Evidence from other countries shows higher prices will only push families onto other unhealthy drinks which are not covered by the tax, so the impact on health outcomes will be smaller than expected.”
Gavin Partington, from the British Soft Drinks Association, said: “Sugar intake from soft drinks has been declining for several years now, down 17 per cent since 2012.
“There is no evidence worldwide that a tax on soft drinks has had an impact on levels of obesity.
“This is a regressive tax that will hit the poorest hardest.”