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Britain’s second Covid lockdown will cost £1.8billion EACH DAY, warns top economist
THE new national lockdown will cost Britain £1.8billion each day, a top economist warned last night.
The dreaded second wave of coronavirus has raised the prospect of a grim Christmas on the high street and a New Year of gloom on the jobs front.
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Festive spending is expected to plummet while office parties are cancelled and traditional big family gatherings banned.
Those are the predictions of Prof Douglas McWilliams, founder of the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
Meanwhile growth across the western world will fall between five and ten per cent a month, according to a report expected this week.
Analysis said it will kill the UK’s recent recovery and return Britain to the position it was in last April.
Mr McWilliams said: “I’m afraid it’s going to be a bleak Christmas for the economy and it will have devastating effects.
“The retail sector will be particularly hard hit as sales are about 50 per cent higher than the monthly average at this time of year. The impact of reduced Christmas spending will be huge.
“If the office bash is cancelled, people won’t be buying a new party frock.
It’s going to be a bleak Christmas for the economy and it will have devastating effects.
Prof Douglas McWilliams
"We’ll be spending less money on food and drink because we cannot have so many friends and family over.
“And if you’re not going visiting, perhaps people will cut back on presents.”
Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s finances will also take a blow.
Apart from facing demands to bail out struggling companies, the slump in Christmas spending will mean his VAT takings are slashed.
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Q&A on the rules
HERE are answers to some of your questions on England’s new lockdown:
MY boyfriend and I live apart. Can we spend a night together?
NO, people from separate households will be banned from staying in someone else’s house.
I’VE been put on furlough at work. Will I still be eligible?
YES, you will get 80 per cent of your wages until December 2.
AM I able to meet my friend at a pub next Saturday?
NO, pubs, restaurants and cafes will only be allowed to operate a takeaway or delivery service.
CAN I meet up with my nan for a walk if it’s just us two?
YES, you can meet up with one person from another household if you are exercising.
CAN my kids’ 11-a-side under-14s football team still play?
NO, all outdoor team sports are KO’d — although the PM said the Premier League would continue.
CAN I still go to the cinema?
NO, all entertainment venues must close.
CAN my son go to primary school and daughter to nursery?
YES, schools, universities and nurseries will all stay open.
I’M a builder. Can I work?
YES, construction work is OK.
CAN I still holiday in Greece?
NO, all travel abroad is banned unless you must travel for work.
I’M a key worker. Can my mum still look after my daughter?
YES, support bubbles will remain in place.
I’M 82. Am I banned from going outdoors?
NO, but you are encouraged to only leave home if you have to.
Last night economists warned it could be a double whammy from which the country may never fully recover — and they called on Boris Johnson to “change tack”.
Fears of the second lockdown yesterday prompted a return to the panic buying of March — with toilet rolls again top of many lists.
The slump could continue well into 2021, with hopes of the economy picking up next year pinned on the second wave blowing itself out and a vaccine being developed.
And if China avoids a second wave, it could gain a further year to 18 months in its economic race with the West on top of the two or three years it has gained already.
LONG-LASTING DAMAGE
Independent economist Julian Jessop said it was hard to challenge the gloomy predictions of scientists without knowing what would happen if the Government did nothing.
He said evidence was growing that the economic and social damage outweighs the benefits of restrictions.
The impact of patients missing treatment for other conditions and youngsters deprived of education and job opportunities might be more harmful than the virus itself.
Mr Jessop said: “The longer the economy is kept shuttered, the greater the risk that the damage will be long-lasting.
"In my view, a second national lockdown would be a double-hit from which it would be much harder to recover.”
Prof David Paton, chairman of industrial economics at the University of Nottingham, said restrictions could be counter-productive.
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He said shutting down pubs may result in more people socialising in houses with fewer safety precautions.
Similarly, the 10pm curfew resulted in crowds congregating in streets. Curbs have hit businesses hard, many of which were just getting back on their feet.
He said: “Governments tend to overestimate their ability to control the virus and hugely underestimate the cost of the restrictions they impose.
“Many restrictions are arbitrary and ineffective.”
Pub owners and business leaders last night reacted to the lockdown with dismay and warnings of job losses and business closures.
Emma McClarkin, of the British Beer and Pub Association, said: “This could be the final straw for thousands of pubs and brewers.”
It is time for the Government to change tack - we need to find a way to live with the virus.
Prof David Paton
Helen Dickinson, of the British Retail Consortium, said: “Retail faces a nightmare before Christmas.”
Mark Littlewood, boss of the Institute of Economic Affairs, added: “Rather than putting the entire economy in deep freeze to wait for the miracle of a vaccination we need to find smarter ways to live with the virus.”
British Chambers of Commerce chief Adam Marshall said: “These new restrictions will be a devastating blow to business communities who have done everything they can to adapt and operate safely.”
Andrew Goodacre, of the British Independent Retailers Association said: “We lost 25 per cent of independent retailers after the last lockdown, and without meaningful support the sector will be decimated by further lockdowns.”
Tim Alderslade, boss of Airlines UK, and Karen Dee, of the Airport Operators Association, said: “A ban on international travel means airlines and airports, already hamstrung by quarantine, are closed businesses and will require financial support now.
"Hundreds of thousands of jobs and our economic recovery are on the line.”
Mark Tanzer, boss of travel trade organisation Abta, said: “Today’s announcement that holidays in the UK and abroad will not be allowed under lockdown in England will mean a complete shutdown for travel businesses which have already been severely damaged by the pandemic.”
This is a national disaster
By Karol Sikora, Professor of Medicine
A SECOND national lockdown will cause economic and social catastrophe. Thoughtful, targeted measures are what’s needed.
It will only delay the inevitable. When it ends you’re exactly where you were when it started — except billions of pounds poorer.
In Wales they didn’t even have a particularly high incidence of Covid-19. When they come out of lockdown they’ll be no better off.
At the moment the NHS is coping very well and the people going into hospital are mostly in their 80s and 90s.
But lockdowns produce fear, and it means people with conditions such as cancer, heart disease and strokes don’t seek help.
A second lockdown will also have a major impact on mental health.
People will not deal with it as well the second time around.
The point of a lockdown is to pause everything while a long-term answer comes along, like a vaccine. It may never come.
We are far better off putting more effort into protecting those with risk factors and letting everyone else get on with life.
The term “herd immunity” is a swear word but until we can truly achieve it, with or without a vaccine, we must learn to live alongside this virus.
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Hawkish Tory MPs warned they will resist the measures in Parliament.
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Tory MP Sir Desmond Swayne insisted a lockdown must be signed off by the Commons.
Ex-Cabinet minister Sir John Redwood said: “Before we give support for such a measure, there needs to be a convincing case about how much good the measures will do to save lives.”
The Sun on Sunday says
BORIS Johnson presented a Halloween horror show on primetime TV last night.
He explained that our options are basically choosing the lesser of two catastrophes.
With viral infections running out of control across Britain, the PM used grim statistics to make his convincing case for locking down England for four weeks.
Covid deaths could hit 1,400 a day by the first week of December, the epidemic could be twice as bad as in the spring and the NHS would be rapidly overwhelmed.
Britain is now experiencing 50,000 infections a day and Boris warns that the health service is facing a medical and moral disaster.
Nobody wants to see the NHS suffering the brunt of this crisis.
But the human cost of Lockdown Two in cold, dark winter could also make the three-month clamp in the spring look like a walk in the park.
Struggling small businesses already hit hard by the first wave will have no pre-Christmas trading to see them through. More firms will go to the wall and more jobs will be lost.
The decision to resume furlough for the duration is welcome but places another staggering load on our debts.
Furlough helped a lot of big chains while many small firms such as hairdressers and nail bars plus local pubs suffered. They will now be pushed to the brink of disaster.
The cost to the economy will be £1.8billion A DAY and the cost in lives lost to other untreated illness will be huge.
Furthermore, how good is the exit plan from this new clamp?
The proposal to resume tiers for certain areas after December 2 raises the worrying possibility of a brighter Christmas for some parts of the country than others.
In any event Boris must ensure this lockdown does not last one second longer than necessary.
Because for all the good it does in the fight against Covid, its consequences are also disastrous for Britain.
Boris Johnson apologises as he announces pubs, bars and restaurants must close AGAIN
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