‘Quitaly’ could cause collapse of crumbling EU empire if Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement kicks Italy’s PM into touch
Fate of the Union could take another hazardous corner when Italy goes to the polls and chooses between Matteo Renzi or a comedian backed by glamorous mayor of Rome
WHEN people debate the UK and EU they always ignore one thing.
Britain may be on a journey after Brexit but so is the EU. In fact it is the EU’s journey that looks the more dangerous.
Even without Brexit, the EU is veering from crisis to crisis.
It will take another hazardous corner this weekend when Italy goes to the polls and chooses between the case made by its beleaguered Prime Minister and a comedian backed by the glamorous mayor of Rome.
The actual question voters face is long and convoluted, typical of Italian politics. It asks whether the constitution should be reformed.
But in a country mired in debt, unemployment and an ongoing banking crisis, Sunday’s vote has instead become a referendum on the Italian government and the EU as a whole.
If the public vote Yes to the referendum then their centre-left Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, says it will help make government decision-making and the country’s finances easier.
But the Five Star Movement led by comedian Beppe Grillo is using the referendum as an opportunity to kick the political class as a whole and the unelected Prime Minister in particular.
And the recent election of 37-year old mayor of Rome Virginia Raggi, a high-profile member of the anti-establishment Five Star, shows rebellion is in the air.
Sensing this, Renzi has already backtracked on his promise to resign if the vote is No.
But he and others are warning of dire consequences if the vote doesn’t go their way.
There are claims that at least eight national banks will collapse unless the country votes Yes — a claim based on the Prime Minister resigning and investors losing confidence in the resulting turmoil.
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Whether Renzi stays or not, it is wrong to blame the troubles of the Italian banking sector on this referendum.
After years of bad loans and complex schemes to try to deal with this debt, Italy’s banks were already in trouble.
There is also a warning that Italy will have to leave the single currency if the people vote No at the weekend.
It is hard to work out what is truth and what is lies. As we learned in Britain in the run-up to June, an enormous number of scare stories are thrown around by government when they want the people to vote their way.
In truth it is unthinkable that Italy will leave the EU or Eurozone after Sunday. Despite this, some people point out that these are times when the unthinkable is happening. Who expected Brexit? Or Donald Trump?
Yet although voters are certainly angry at their political elites, that does not mean that the same pattern will play out everywhere.
Just as the French voting system makes it all but impossible for Marine le Pen to win France’s Presidential election next year, so the details of the
Italian system mean that anything at all could happen. Italy is set up so as to be almost ungovernable.
The old adage is that “things that cannot go on won’t”. But more than any other country in Europe, in Italy the rule is that
things that cannot go on usually do. Even so, the people now predicting “Frexit” or “Quitaly” tend to be expressing their hopes over reality.
Germany cannot allow Italy or any other Eurozone country to hit the wall. The whole EU project is at stake. As it will be time and again in the years ahead.
By voting Leave the UK chose to remove itself from the project. But that doesn’t mean we can escape the fallout if the whole thing does one day crash.
— Douglas Murray is associate director of the Henry Jackson Society.
Polls apart
ITALIANS will vote in a referendum on Sunday on whether to accept a package of constitutional reforms put forward by PM Matteo Renzi, leader of the centre-left Democratic Party.
He argues it would make the passing of legislation easier and propel Italy towards political stability and economic recovery.
Opponents say the changes would give far too much power to the government of the day, weakening the checks and balances currently provided by the Senate, which operates like our House of Lords.
There are fears the Five Star Movement, an anti-establishment party with little experience, could be propelled into power if the government loses the referendum.
Five Star is lead by populist former stand-up comedian Beppe Grillo, who wants another referendum – on abandoning the euro.