Gloomy leaked Brexit reports are a bid to ‘undermine’ our EU exit, minister storms
Steve Baker lashed out after a Brexit impact assessment claims Britain will suffer in every scenario when Britain leaves the European Union - but that a US trade deal will boost growth
GLOOMY leaked Brexit reports which say Britain will be worse off after Brexit are a bid to "undermine our EU exit" and are using predictions that are "always wrong", a minister has stormed.
Steve Baker lashed out after a Brexit impact assessment claims Britain will suffer in every scenario when Britain leaves the European Union - but that a US trade deal will boost growth.
The Brexit minister said today that the work done so far was "not anywhere near being approved by ministers".
He told MPs in the Commons that it did not consider the "most ambitious trade relationship with the EU" the Government was seeking, and hit out at the media for putting the pessimistic leak out there.
A fuming Mr Baker said that a full economic impact of whatever deal Britain gets with the EU will be put out before Parliament votes on it.
Tory backbencher Philip Davies said "London-centric Remoaners had put together some dodgy figures ... to try and reverse the result of the referendum".
And Peter Bone said he looked forward to proving the economist's "horror story predictions" wrong.
But Labour's Sir Keir Starmer called on the Government to publish the economic impacts in full now - and it was "not good enough" to describe today's reports as "flawed".
Theresa May has blamed civil servants for leaking the unapproved Brexit analysis and stressed Britain can avoid an economic hit by getting its own bespoke deal.
The Prime Minister told Cabinet this morning that a report claiming Britain will be worse off after leaving the EU was "initial work not approved by ministers".
Leavers lashed out at the "speculative" reports today, said they were based on "opinion not fact" and should be ignored.
A Brexit impact assessment shown to claimed every sector would be hit while looking at three scenarios when Britain leaves the bloc.
But as Mrs May said today, it doesn't even factor in a bespoke trade deal like the one she wants us to get.
A spokesman for the PM said: "The PM said this was initial work, not approved by ministers, which only considers off the shelf scenarios. No analysis was made of the bespoke arrangement we seek as a matter of government policy – as set out in the Florence speech."
The report suggested UK growth would be 5 per cent lower over the next 15 years compared to current forecasts under a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU.
The "no deal" scenario could reduce growth by 8 per cent over that same time frame - and even a so-called soft Brexit could hurt the UK's economy.
But trade deals with other non-EU countries and blocs, such as China, India, Australia, the Gulf countries, and the nations of Southeast Asia would add a further 0.1% to 0.4% to GDP over the long term - which we will finally be able to sign up to once we leave.
And the assessments also said that getting a trade deal with the US was a definite - boosting growth by around 0.2 per cent in the long term.
Brexiteers furiously hit out at the "deliberately leaked" report and insisted that the gloomy topline predictions be taken "with a pinch of salt".
Iain Duncan Smith told the BBC this morning: "Every single forecast coming from government and from international organisations has been completely wrong."
He pointed out that after we voted to leave half a million job losses and the collapse of the economy was predicted in gloomy Treasury forecasts - which has not come true.
And he insisted that "the timing of this is highly suspicious."
What are the key points in the leaked Government document?
- All scenarios suggest a trade deal with the US will happen - benefiting GDP by about 0.2 per cent
- Trade deals with other non-EU countries and blocs, such as China, India, Australia, the Gulf countries, and the nations of Southeast Asia would add a further 0.1 per cent to 0.4 per cent to GDP
- Under a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, UK growth would be 5 per cent lower over the next 15 years compared to current forecasts
- If the UK reverted to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules with a 'no deal' Brexit, growth would be reduced by 8 per cent
- Single-market access through membership of the European Economic Area, the softest Brexit option, would still lower growth by 2 per cent
- The industries most negatively impacted in all three scenarios includes chemicals, clothing, manufacturing and food and drink
- Only the agriculture sector under the WTO scenario would not be adversely affected, findings suggest
- The North East, the West Midlands, and Northern Ireland face the biggest falls in economic performance, but every UK region is likely to be affected negatively
And Jacob Rees-Mogg, chairman of the European Research Group of Tory MPs, said that modelling had been "highly speculative" so far and was often inaccurate.
He told Sky News that long-term predictions for 15 year in the future were "an expression of opinion, not hard fact" and that when we leave the EU we can slash tariffs on clothes and food and BOOST the economy.
Richard Tice, Co-Chair of Leave Means Leave said that the reports should be ignored completely.
He said today: “Given the key role the Treasury played in Project Fear and the fact their projections have been so wildly inaccurate, these reports are completely discredited and should be ignored.
“Other wiser economists have dismantled the gloomy forecasts of a post-Brexit economic crash and have forecast that the UK’s economy could see a Brexit boost of £135 billion a year.
“It is extremely worrying that the Treasury continues to try to obstruct Brexit rather than welcome the substantial opportunities it brings.
“The UK economy can flourish when we leave the EU but we need a Chancellor with vision, who recognises this growth potential."
Other economic analysis says we will see a Brexit economy boost
TOP economists previously predicted that households will be up to £40 better off once Britain has left the European Union, which fly in the face of today's gloomy leaked forecasts.
The price of food and other products will tumble if we begin importing tariff-free goods from around the world outside the EU, it said.
Britain’s economy could enjoy a Brexit boost worth £135billion a year, according to a glowing assessment by a group of 16 leading economists, which was released last year.
National output will rise as we become an international trading nation – raising living standards, creating better-paid jobs and cutting unemployment.
Economists said there is mounting evidence that quitting Europe’s trade barriers will transform our prospects over the next decade.
We would also reap savings from cutting immigration, slashing EU red tape and halting contributions to Brussels.
Professor Patrick Minford, who helped draft the report, argued it is time to abandon the gloomy forecasts and embrace the new prosperity on the horizon.
He declared: “Project Fear failed yet many Remainers are trying to resurrect it.
“The government should embrace a clean, swift Brexit – avoid the uncertainty of a long, drawn out transition and embrace the opportunities of Brexit.”
Theresa May has come under fire over her Brexit strategy in recent days, with eurosceptic rivals hitting out at the Chancellor for saying there should only be "modest changes" to Britain's relationship with the EU post-Brexit.
And others have said the proposed transition period is less of a "bridge" and more of a "plank" where we don't know what will come afterwards.
The top secret document had been made for officials across Whitehall for the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) - and comes as Mrs May tries to unite her cabinet ahead of Brexit talks with the EU about our future trading relationship.
Yesterday EU officials published guidelines for a transition period, which will see us have to abide by the bloc's rules for another 2 years at least.
Plans were in place to present the predictions to key ministers in one-to-one meetings this week ahead of the Brexit cabinet subcommittee next week.
Mark Carney finally sees the Brexit sunshine and hints at upgraded forecasts for when we leave the EU 2019
BUSINESSES will be more confident when we finally quit the EU in 2019, Mark Carney said today,.
The Bank of England boss said it was considering a "stronger global economic environment" in 2019 - when Britain starts Brexit.
Speaking to peers this afternoon, the usually gloomy Governor sparked hopes of a forecast upgrade in the future.
And he admitted again that a "disorderly Brexit" was unlikely to happen.
Mr Carney did say today that the economy was still facing "headwinds" following the vote, but that business investment has held up better than the Bank predicted before the EU referendum.
He also said he was "not familiar" with the leaked documents regarding Brexit's impact on the economy.